The first 100 days of Donald Trump’s second term in office have upended much of the established world order. While global attention has focused on his trade wars, diplomatic rows, and provocative stances on NATO and climate accords, one of the most quietly affected relationships has been that between the United States and India. Once seen as a cornerstone of Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy, the U.S.-India partnership is now navigating a turbulent phase defined by uncertainty, recalibration, and opportunistic hedging.
For over two decades, U.S.-India ties had steadily improved, with shared concerns about China’s rise serving as a powerful unifying factor. But the re-election of Donald Trump, whose foreign policy style has proven highly disruptive, is shaking the very foundations of this strategic partnership. While Indian officials publicly downplay the friction, behind the scenes, they are working feverishly to prevent serious damage.
The Rise of Strategic Convergence
U.S.-India relations reached new heights under President Joe Biden, who saw India not just as a democratic ally but as a critical counterbalance to China. Despite India’s growing authoritarian tendencies and protectionist trade practices, Washington overlooked these issues to focus on high-tech collaboration, supply chain diversification, and defense cooperation. Biden’s administration viewed New Delhi as essential to maintaining a liberal, rules-based international order in the Indo-Pacific.
India, in turn, saw the partnership as a means to bolster its own geopolitical clout and economic development. The convergence of interests created a golden window of cooperation, marked by tech deals, joint military exercises, and burgeoning trade.
Trump’s Return and the Shift in Priorities
Trump’s return to the White House, however, has derailed this momentum. Unlike his first term, when India was a central figure in the U.S.’s China strategy, Trump 2.0 has shown little interest in the liberal international order or the strategic logic of great power competition. Instead, he has doubled down on economic nationalism, imposing steep tariffs on trading partners, including a 26% tariff on Indian goods.
In this new environment, India finds itself scrambling to protect the gains of the past. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington in the early weeks of Trump’s presidency was a carefully orchestrated effort to reassure Trump of India’s value as a trade and strategic partner. Modi went as far as publicly endorsing elements of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” agenda—a calculated gesture aimed at shielding India from punitive actions.
The Bilateral Strain: Trade and Technology
Trade is now the biggest point of contention. Trump’s obsession with trade deficits has made India an easy target. The Indian government is pushing for an interim trade agreement to reduce tariffs and avoid escalation. Additionally, India is offering to amend its contentious nuclear liability laws to facilitate U.S. reactor exports—a long-standing demand from Washington.
On the technology front, Trump’s gutting of bureaucratic oversight and loosening of export controls have ironically created new openings for India. The dismantling of traditional safeguards, while troubling in a broader context, may allow Indian firms to access high-end technologies previously out of reach.
Geopolitical Rebalancing and Hedging
India is not placing all its bets on Washington. Recognizing the volatility of Trump’s policies, Indian policymakers have launched a parallel campaign to diversify their global partnerships. Talks of a free-trade agreement with the European Union have resumed, and ties with countries like France, Germany, Japan, Australia, and Israel are being intensified.
Remarkably, India is also exploring cautious re-engagement with China, despite ongoing border tensions, and is maintaining its historical relationship with Russia. Its engagement with the Global South, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, is likewise being expanded.
Illusions of Multipolarity
Some in New Delhi view Trump’s disruption as a blessing in disguise—a moment that could enable India to assert itself as a great power in an emerging multipolar world. However, this is likely an illusion. The erosion of the liberal international order is not leading to balanced multipolarity but rather to a fractured bipolar world dominated by the United States and China.
Trump’s retreat from international institutions and weakening of alliances risks undermining the very coalition needed to balance Beijing. In this scenario, India risks being left on the margins, caught between two superpowers without the leverage to dictate terms.
Strategic Costs vs. Tactical Gains
While India may secure some tactical wins—access to new technologies, space to maneuver diplomatically, and temporary trade concessions—the long-term strategic picture is less optimistic. The weakening of U.S. alliances, the empowerment of China, and the devaluation of international norms all run counter to India’s fundamental interests.
Ultimately, New Delhi faces a difficult balancing act. It must continue to engage with a mercurial United States while strengthening ties with other global powers. Whether India can successfully navigate this new world order without compromising its ambitions remains to be seen.
Trump’s second term has introduced a new era of unpredictability in U.S.-India relations. As India strives to maintain its strategic autonomy while leveraging global partnerships, it must also confront the uncomfortable reality that the very architecture enabling its rise is now under siege. The coming years will test not only the resilience of the U.S.-India relationship but also India’s ability to adapt in an increasingly polarized and uncertain world.