By: Gerard Bundersen
In a matter of weeks, Trump has reversed decades of U.S. foreign policy toward Russia—undermining support for Ukraine, shaking the foundation of NATO, and dangling the prospect of sanctions relief in pursuit of a dubious ceasefire deal.
For the Kremlin, this is more than a diplomatic opening—it is a once-in-a-generation strategic opportunity. Vladimir Putin, emboldened by America’s retreat from its traditional alliances, is moving to reclaim dominance in Eastern Europe and tilt the balance of power away from the West. The war in Ukraine, once a symbol of Western unity against authoritarian aggression, is now at risk of being reshaped into a bargaining chip between two great powers.
This investigation examines how the Kremlin is exploiting Trump’s transactional worldview to advance its long-standing objectives: subjugating Ukraine, weakening NATO, and dismantling the post-Cold War security order in Europe. Drawing on diplomatic sources, policy analysis, and recent developments on both sides of the Atlantic, we explore whether the Trump-Putin convergence marks a turning point in U.S.-Russia relations—or the beginning of a far more dangerous era for global security.
A Reversal of Legacy Policy
For nearly eight decades, the transatlantic alliance and NATO formed the bedrock of U.S. strategic deterrence against Russia and its Soviet predecessor. However, within the first 100 days of Trump’s new term, this architecture has been rattled. Trump’s administration has openly pursued a rapprochement with Russia, dismantling previous efforts at isolation. The result: a Kremlin emboldened by newfound diplomatic space and a weakened Western front.
Under the pretext of facilitating a ceasefire in Ukraine and shifting focus to China, Washington has essentially distanced itself from Kyiv. Military aid has slowed, and public rhetoric has grown increasingly transactional. For Ukrainian officials, the once-steadfast support from Washington now feels precarious, leaving the country vulnerable to Russia’s deepening influence.
Moscow’s Dual Agenda
President Vladimir Putin, sensing opportunity, has embraced the new dynamic. The Kremlin’s twin goals—reasserting dominance over Ukraine and reducing U.S. influence in Europe—have gained traction. While publicly engaging with the U.S. on ceasefire talks, Moscow has been clear in its demands: recognition of its territorial gains and a politically neutral, demilitarized Ukraine.
Putin’s approach appears calculated. Even if no agreement is reached, the mere perception of direct negotiations may demoralize Ukraine and fracture European resolve. A U.S. withdrawal from the conflict—even a partial one—would signal to global powers that Washington no longer considers Ukraine a geopolitical priority.
Strategic Manipulation of Transatlantic Ties
Beyond Ukraine, Russia is exploiting growing rifts within the transatlantic alliance. Trump’s skepticism of NATO and desire to recalibrate European security commitments has created unease among traditional allies. European leaders, particularly in Berlin, Paris, and Warsaw, now question the reliability of U.S. defense guarantees.
The Kremlin has already floated the idea of bilateral trade and energy deals with Washington, especially in oil and gas sectors. Such deals, if realized, could incentivize U.S. companies to lobby for easing sanctions on Russia—thereby undermining the collective Western stance on economic pressure.
Worse still, Moscow may attempt to draw the U.S. into bilateral security negotiations, bypassing Brussels entirely. Any suggestion that Washington might reshape NATO’s commitments without consulting European allies would be a political earthquake within the alliance.
The Limits of U.S.-Russia Rapprochement
Despite Putin’s willingness to engage, Russian officials remain wary of Trump’s unpredictability. The Kremlin views the U.S. foreign policy establishment—especially the intelligence and defense apparatus—as inherently hostile. There’s a strong belief that any concessions made by Trump could be swiftly reversed by Congress or a future administration.
Moreover, Russia has no intention of distancing itself from its new strategic partners—namely China, Iran, and North Korea. These alliances have delivered tangible economic and military benefits. With China, in particular, Moscow has deepened ties through trade, infrastructure, and joint military exercises. For the Kremlin, these relationships are long-term hedges against Western dominance.
Potential Blowback in Europe
Paradoxically, Trump’s retreat from Europe may ignite a new era of European strategic autonomy. Countries like Germany and Poland are revisiting discussions once considered taboo—including the potential acquisition of nuclear weapons. The idea is gaining traction in some circles: if the U.S. can no longer be trusted as a security guarantor, then Europe must defend itself.
Additionally, a recalibrated European defense policy may result in new military investments, greater intelligence sharing, and enhanced regional cooperation. While this might strengthen Europe in the long run, the short-term consequences could be a chaotic and uncoordinated defense landscape—something Russia could exploit.
Putin’s Calculated Risk
For Putin, the payoff is immense, but so are the risks. Miscalculating Trump’s intentions or overplaying his hand in Ukraine could push Washington back toward a hardline stance. Likewise, if Russia’s interference leads to a full-fledged European rearmament, Moscow may find itself surrounded by more capable, more autonomous adversaries.
Nevertheless, the Kremlin seems willing to gamble. With U.S. alliances in flux, sanctions policy in question, and European unity under strain, Russia sees an opening to reassert itself as a great power—on its own terms.
Trump’s new foreign policy doctrine has catalyzed a precarious reordering of global politics. By prioritizing transactional diplomacy and withdrawing from established commitments, the administration has not only destabilized Ukraine’s security but has also shaken the pillars of the post–Cold War international order.
Whether this leads to a more multipolar world, as some in Moscow hope, or merely consolidates U.S.-China bipolarity with Russia as a junior partner, remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that Russia is no longer a sidelined actor—it is once again a central player in the strategic drama of Europe, thanks in large part to the disruptive return of Donald Trump to the world stage.
Former senior U.S. National Security Council official speaking on condition of anonymity said: “Trump’s administration doesn’t view Russia as a strategic adversary but as a bargaining chip.”