A geopolitical race is underway in the heart of Eurasia, as countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus scramble to reposition themselves as critical trade corridors in a rapidly shifting global landscape. With Europe urgently seeking routes that bypass Russia in the wake of Moscow’s war in Ukraine, unprecedented focus has turned to the so-called “New Silk Roads.”
This investigation delves into the evolving battle for control over Eurasian transit, uncovering the infrastructure projects, political realignments, and strategic calculations shaping the region’s future. Kazakhstan has emerged as a frontrunner with its established Middle Corridor, while Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are actively building alternatives to reduce their dependence on Russian and Kazakh routes.
We explore China’s ambitions through projects like the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway, and assess how smaller states like Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Armenia are navigating both geographic and political constraints. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan and Georgia are leveraging their ports and positions to become gateways between Asia and Europe—though long-standing regional conflicts continue to cast uncertainty.
The report reveals how infrastructure, neutrality policies, and shifting alliances are redrawing the map of trade—positioning the region not just as a transit zone, but as a new geopolitical chessboard.
Investigation Team
Since the onset of Russia’s war on Ukraine in 2022, the tectonic plates of global trade have shifted. Western economies, especially within the European Union, are recalibrating their dependencies, seeking alternative routes that bypass the increasingly isolated Russia. This redirection has catapulted Central Asia and the South Caucasus into the limelight, transforming the region into a battleground of connectivity, infrastructure, and strategic diplomacy. This investigation unpacks the emerging race for transit dominance across the heart of Eurasia, examining key players, projects, and the geopolitical stakes that will define the future of trade on the continent.
Kazakhstan – The Central Artery
Kazakhstan is no newcomer to the transit game. For more than a decade, the country has positioned itself as Eurasia’s transport nerve center. The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), or the “Middle Corridor,” has become its crown jewel. By 2024, cargo volumes on TITR surged by 20%, hitting 3.3 million tonnes. Today, roughly 85% of goods travelling from China to Europe pass through Kazakhstan, a testament to both geography and consistent infrastructure development.
But Kazakhstan’s role is more than logistical. It is political. With TRACECA (Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia) also running through its territory, Kazakhstan enjoys not just trade but leverage. Yet, cracks remain. Over-reliance on legacy Soviet railways, limited port access beyond the Caspian Sea, and growing competition from neighbours mean the lead is not guaranteed.
Turkmenistan – From Isolation to Ambition
For years, Turkmenistan was the silent partner in Central Asia. Its neutrality doctrine and inward-facing policies left it trailing in regional initiatives. That has changed. A shift in leadership has opened the floodgates of international engagement. Ahead of the EU-Central Asia Summit in 2025, top EU diplomats flocked to Ashgabat, exploring ways to plug Turkmenistan into the Middle Corridor.
This newfound enthusiasm is reflected in projects like the Caspian-Black Sea route — connecting Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Romania — and the revival of the Lapis Lazuli Corridor, stretching from Afghanistan to Turkey. Yet, while ports like Turkmenbashi offer promise, Turkmenistan must address gaps in infrastructure, governance, and transparency if it wants a lasting seat at the table.
Uzbekistan – Diversification Through Diplomacy
Uzbekistan has emerged as the regional pragmatist. Though reliant on the TITR, Tashkent is building parallel strategies. The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway, scheduled to begin construction in mid-2025, is one such plan. If completed, it will connect China to Europe without transiting Kazakhstan — a game-changer in regional dynamics.
Uzbekistan is also courting Tehran for a southern route to Turkey and India via Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Its advantage lies in its diplomatic agility and relatively stable domestic politics. But these plans depend on cooperation with Turkmenistan, and geopolitical tremors in Afghanistan and Iran could derail ambitions quickly.
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – The Underdogs of Connectivity
Nestled in mountainous terrain and burdened with limited infrastructure, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have traditionally lagged behind their neighbors. Yet, both share borders with China and dream of becoming alternate gateways to Uzbekistan. Kyrgyzstan, a partner in the upcoming China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway, seeks to reduce its dependency on Kazakhstan and Russia.
Tajikistan, in turn, is betting on ties with Iran’s Chabahar Port and leveraging its proximity to Afghanistan. However, border disputes, internal unrest, and infrastructural deficiencies continue to hold both nations back. A recent border agreement between the two could be a step toward collaboration — if trust can be built and investments secured.
The Caucasus – Baku and Tbilisi’s Geopolitical Gamble
With its western Caspian port in Baku, Azerbaijan is the linchpin of all east-west corridors: Middle Corridor, TRACECA, North-South, and more. Georgia complements this with its Black Sea ports (Poti and Batumi) and land access to Turkey. Together, they offer a direct, Russian-free link from China to Europe.
However, the Caucasus is a region of fragile peace. Armenia’s role is limited by its geopolitical position — bordered by Turkey and Azerbaijan, both of whom have strained relations with Yerevan. Any lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, particularly involving the transit corridor to Nakhchivan, could reshape the region’s logistics — but that peace remains elusive.
Iran’s shared border with Turkey means it could siphon off some trade from Georgia, but Western sanctions on Tehran complicate its appeal to European partners.
Mongolia – Between Giants
Mongolia’s aspirations are hemmed in by its geography. Landlocked between Russia and China, its only feasible corridor — the Steppe Route — is compromised by Russia’s pariah status. While Mongolia has expressed interest in broader connectivity, its hands are tied until the geopolitical climate improves.
The Infrastructure Race
Billions of dollars are pouring into roads, railways, and ports across Central Asia and the Caucasus. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) remains a significant player, but the EU, Turkey, and even India are increasing investments. The World Bank, EBRD, and ADB are backing several projects, but corruption, bureaucracy, and regional rivalries pose serious challenges.
Case in point: the Middle Corridor’s reliance on synchronized customs regimes across multiple countries — each with different political agendas — has slowed down what should be a seamless route.
A Decade of Decision
The next ten years will define the future of Eurasian trade. If political stability holds and key infrastructure projects are completed, the Middle Corridor could challenge or even surpass Russia’s traditional routes. For Europe, this would mean a resilient, multipolar supply chain.
But it’s not just about trains and ports. Whoever controls the transit routes will shape the geopolitics of the region for decades. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia currently lead — but as Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan rise, and as borderlands like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan find their footing, the map could look very different by 2035.
This is more than a race for trade. It’s a contest for influence, sovereignty, and the right to define the next chapter of the Silk Road.