The first piece is in place. On Wednesday, Israel and Hamas agreed on the initial phase of a long-awaited peace plan after intense negotiations in Egypt. In this stage, according to reports, Hamas will return the twenty remaining living hostages that it is holding, while Israel will begin to pull back its forces in the Gaza Strip. What does this deal mean for each side and the region? What steps must follow to end the war that began just over two years ago when Hamas attacked Israel? Below, Atlantic Council experts share their first reactions to the first phase.
In Depth Reports
TODAY’S EXPERT REACTION BROUGHT TO YOU BY
- Alex Plitsas (@alexplitsas): Nonresident senior fellow with the Middle East Programs’ Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and former chief of sensitive activities for special operations and combating terrorism in the Office of the Secretary of Defense
- Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley: Distinguished fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, thirty-year US diplomat, and former special assistant for the Middle East and Africa to the secretary of state
- Thomas S. Warrick (@TomWarrickAC): Nonresident senior fellow with the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and former deputy assistant secretary for counterterrorism policy in the US Department of Homeland Security
What’s Israel thinking?
- A big factor in getting here, Alex notes, was “widespread public and political pressure inside Israel, where opposition leaders have been vocal about ending the war, prioritizing the safe return of hostages, and then confronting Hamas with broader strategic decisions.”
- But “we’ve been here before,” Gina points out, considering that this first phase is similar to the exchange of hostages and prisoners by the two sides earlier this year: “And then the Israelis broke the cease-fire.”
- US President Donald Trump’s full twenty-point peace plan, Gina notes, has elements that are “anathema” to each side. “Hamas does not want to disarm and give up a role in Palestine’s future,” she tells us. “And Israel does not want to withdraw completely from the Gaza Strip, allow the Palestinian Authority to return, or agree to an eventual Palestinian state.”
What’s Hamas thinking?
- A central issue not addressed in this first phase is Hamas’s refusal to disarm, says Alex, but that could come in a future phase. “Without addressing Hamas’s military capability—its rockets, tunnel networks, and armed brigades—the risk remains that [Hamas] could regroup and launch future attacks.”
- The possibility of Hamas launching future attacks affects plans to rebuild Gaza, explains Tom: “There is no prospect that Arab governments will contribute to Gaza’s reconstruction if Hamas can retake power and then attack Israel, leading Israel to destroy whatever was rebuilt.”
- “If Hamas refuses to step aside or disarm, it becomes clearer to both Israelis and the world that the group itself—not simply the cycle of conflict—is the obstacle to lasting peace,” Alex argues.
What’s next?
The international community will also need to restore a post-World War II “rules-based system,” including international laws and norms, that “has nearly been destroyed” by the war, Gina says. “And that requires a measure of accountability.”
This peace plan, Gina tells us, will require “consistency and sustained attention” from Trump, because “without his weight, there should be little doubt that Israel will backtrack on its commitments, as it has under prior agreements.”
Similarly, Gina adds, Arab governments will need to keep up the heat on Hamas and the Palestinian Authority “to follow through on their commitments for disarmament and good governance.”
But a major unanswered question, says Tom, is which countries will contribute to an international security force (ISF). For now, a proposed Gaza International Transitional Authority (GITA), led by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, should proceed, Tom says: “If Hamas agrees to lay down its weapons, so much the better. But if not, GITA and the ISF should get ready to deploy into the parts of Gaza that are free of Hamas and begin Gaza’s physical and social reconstruction.”