Why Europe and Ukraine are still struggling to ramp up ammunition production
Lennart Hofman, Anna Myroniuk, Laurens Groeneveld, Oliver Kund, Iliès Hagoug, Ludo Hekman, Pol Pareja
A few days after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, defense analysts, diplomats, and military leaders were already warning of a looming bottleneck: ammunition. As the initial shock of the war turned into a prolonged and grinding conflict, it became evident that Europe and Ukraine were ill-prepared for a long-term artillery war. Today, 17 months into the conflict, that early warning has materialized into a critical issue. Ukraine’s counteroffensive is being slowed by ammunition shortages, and Europe is still scrambling to finalize a coherent strategy to ramp up production.
In this investigation, conducted by a coalition of European media outlets including the Kyiv Independent and the Dutch Investigative Desk, we piece together the timeline of missed opportunities, bureaucratic delays, and systemic weaknesses that have prevented Europe from meeting its ammunition needs. Drawing on more than 250 data points, interviews with industry insiders, military personnel, and diplomats, we map out how the failure to act decisively has directly impacted the battlefield.
Frontline Realities: Grinding Shells by Hand
On the Ukrainian frontlines, the shortage of ammunition isn’t a policy debate — it’s a daily existential threat. In early September 2022, Ukrainian forces were pushing forward in Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts. But in the east, near the Donbas, some units found themselves in dire straits.
Taras, a mortar battery commander, was among those struggling. When long-awaited military aid arrived, the joy quickly turned to disbelief. His brigade received Finnish 120mm mortar shells — but they didn’t fit their Italian Mod. 63 mortars, despite being the same caliber. The manufacturing tolerances differed.
With no alternatives, Taras bought an angle grinder. He manually shaved down the tail fins of 1,000 mortar shells to make them fit the barrels. “It was dangerous, but I had a task, and my infantry was relying only on me,” he said. “At the time, we had nothing else for the brigade artillery.”
This desperate improvisation is emblematic of a larger crisis. Ukraine’s military has proven resilient, creative, and determined — but it can’t manufacture shells on the battlefield.
Early Warnings, Late Responses
Within a month of the war’s start, NATO officials began warning about the strain on supply lines. At a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in March 2022, Admiral Rob Bauer, top military adviser to Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, cautioned: “If the war goes on for a long time, the support cannot be sustained. Be aware: we deliver from half-empty warehouses.”
Camille Grand, then NATO’s assistant secretary general for defense investments, recalled that many believed the war would be short. “We were under the impression that the war would not last long,” he said. This misjudgment delayed the mobilization of Europe’s defense-industrial base.
Fragmentation and National Interests
One of the central obstacles to scaling up ammunition production in Europe is the fragmentation of its defense sector. Each country operates with its own standards, procurement procedures, and industrial interests. Rather than working as a bloc, EU nations have pursued individual deals with arms manufacturers.
This has made it difficult to coordinate large-scale production or ensure compatibility between weapon systems. The example of the Finnish shells and Italian mortars highlights the problem: even nominally identical calibers are often not interchangeable.
Efforts to standardize production and pool procurement have been slow. Political hesitation, national rivalries, and complex bureaucracy have all played a role.
The Wait-and-See Arms Industry
Europe’s defense industry, particularly the smaller manufacturers that produce artillery shells, is reluctant to invest heavily in expanding capacity without long-term contracts. Executives fear that governments may cancel orders once the war ends.
As one industry insider explained, “We can’t build a new production line based on one year of demand. We need guarantees.”
This has created a classic chicken-and-egg dilemma: governments want faster production but hesitate to commit long-term funding; manufacturers want guarantees before investing.
Meanwhile, demand continues to outpace supply.
The EU’s Delayed Action
For months, EU institutions debated how to respond. Finally, on July 7, 2023, the European Commission struck a deal to accelerate ammunition production. The plan includes joint procurement, funding for production expansion, and efforts to harmonize standards.
However, the deal still needs approval from the European Council and Parliament. It is expected to be signed into law by the end of July. Whether this is too little, too late remains to be seen.
Upcoming NATO talks in Vilnius, scheduled for July 11-12, are expected to focus heavily on ammunition. It remains unclear whether meaningful breakthroughs will occur.
Inside the Estonian Backrooms
Much of the behind-the-scenes diplomacy took place in Estonia, a country with a keen understanding of the Russian threat. Sources who attended key meetings in Tallinn and Tartu described intense debates between EU and NATO officials about supply chain coordination.
Estonia repeatedly pushed for a centralised European effort to scale up production. But larger countries were slow to commit. Germany, in particular, was cautious about pledging large-scale military production without parliamentary approval.
French officials, meanwhile, advocated for involving their domestic defense champions, which slowed down decisions about joint procurement.
Lessons from the Battlefield
The lack of coordination has had real consequences. Ukrainian brigades have reported days-long pauses in shelling due to a lack of munitions. In some cases, units have had to choose between targeting enemy positions or conserving shells for defense.
One Ukrainian officer told us: “We ration shells like food. Every shot is a calculation.”
These shortages have hampered Ukraine’s counteroffensive efforts, limiting their ability to press advantages or respond swiftly to Russian movements.
The Path Forward
Despite the challenges, there are signs of progress. Several European manufacturers, including Rheinmetall (Germany) and Nammo (Norway), have announced plans to expand production. The European Defence Agency has set up a new task force to coordinate procurement.
Still, the sense among diplomats and military analysts is that Europe is racing against time. “We lost precious months. Now we have to catch up,” one diplomat told us.
If the EU’s new deal is enacted swiftly, and if NATO allies follow through on promises to replenish stockpiles, Europe might yet build a more resilient defense base. But as the war in Ukraine continues, the costs of delay are counted not just in euros — but in lives.
Seventeen months into Europe’s most consequential war in decades, the inability to meet basic military needs like ammunition production exposes deep vulnerabilities in the continent’s defense posture. What began as bureaucratic inertia and political miscalculation has turned into a life-or-death issue on the battlefield.
If Europe is serious about supporting Ukraine — and preparing for an era of heightened military threats — then ammunition production must become a long-term strategic priority. Anything less risks not just Ukraine’s counteroffensive, but the credibility of Europe’s entire security architecture.
The grinding sound of Taras’ angle grinder on the frontlines is more than a symbol of improvisation — it is a warning bell. And Europe would do well to listen.